Jan 18, 2011

Can African Countries Compete Globally?

Most times, Nigerians when pointing out that things are not all that bad with our country, point to facts like these and these as encouraging signs. Okay, granted, we may be the third biggest economy in Africa after South Africa and Egypt. But what exactly does that mean? First, is it enough to be third in a continent of, honestly, really mediocre economies? Becuase, when you look at it critically, there is really nothing so sustainable about the economies of most African states. The whole Nigerian economy is worth from several estimates, around $350 billion. In other words, the  state of Texas in the United States makes around a third of that in trade with other countries alone. And their total economy is worth over a trillion. And that is just one state among 50 that make up one nation. Some would think about this and dismiss it as the US factor. But we are all in this world together, and while we can never all be equal, we all have potentials and we in Africa are not maximising ours.
So if you ask me if African countries can compete globally, my answer would be a realistic, no. When the biggest African economy, South Africa has a worth of about half that of the state of Texas, the competition becomes clear. We do not have the size.
We do not have the population either. Only Nigeria has a population above a 100 million in the continent. And the cases of India, China, Brazil and even Russia has proven that it helps to have a sizable population. The way countries are structured in Africa makes them little more than counties.We cannot sustain a decent amount of economic activity in a countries with populations of around 20-40 million poor people. You need size to stimulate activity, and size to grow. Most of the countries who grew despite their small size were mostly homogenous, uni-national states. African countries are comprised of thousands of little tribes with their own sense of history. If growth is to be even sustainable, it would serve us better to merge the 52 countries we have now into 4 super states. These would confer on us the advantages of size, population, level of economic activity, economies of scale and the growth potential we need. For instance, imagine if all the countries of Western/Central Africa combined into one state. Angola, Nigeria and Ghana combined would make it the third biggest producer of petroleum in the world, behind only Saudi and Russia. Plus, the combined cultural influences and tourism potential would make the whole region a top cultural center. The imagine if the countries of Eastern Africa and the East central region merged into one country. With the combination of Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and all the others, that country would have the highest tourist activity of all countries except US and Europe. and it certainly would command the most expansive and exotic destinations. All the southern African countries joined together would become by far the top mining economy and the biggest diamond exporting country in history. And the northen African countries pooled together will have more than the economies  of Carlifonia and Texas combined at over 4 billion dollars.By combining only, we will have effectively increased our competitiveness over 200 fold. This of course doesnt count the fact that almost all the regions will be sporting populations of over 300 million and especially in the western part at least 500 million people. That would put us on the map of the biggest countries, and of course launch a power house of economic potential that will eventually spur growth and activity.  And then and only then can we even dream of being remotely competitive on the global scale. And since there is little chance of that happening anytime soon, we have to accept that at the moment, African countries just cannot compete globally. Who, if I may ask, are we going to compete against? I rest my case. Think about it.

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